This repository vine-copula models for estimating flood protection and vulnerability levels, for individual events and at subnational regions. The model was part of larger attribution model HANZE, but for project COMPASS it was prepared as a stand-alone code for easier reuse.
The code needs packages listed in requirements.txt. It was tested with versions
indicated, but should work with newer versions too. It is recommended to use a
virtual environment.
Running the code also requires data from the Zenodo repository: https://zenodo.org/records/15918981
The model contains two functions:
flood_protection_modelling provides an estimate for the probability that a hydrological extreme event
will cause socioeconomic impacts, i.e. flood protection will be insufficient.
The estimate is made at event level and as well in a breakdown of subnational
regions potentially affected. The probabilities are multiplicative.
vulnerability_modelling provides the relative loss as percent of the exposure value
for three categories: fatalities, persons affected and economic loss.
Each function requires providing several input variables (predictors). An example usage and explanation of variables
is provided in the implementation_example.py script.
The model is described in the publication:
Paprotny D., 't Hart C.M.P., Morales-Nápoles O. 2025. Evolution of flood protection levels and flood vulnerability in Europe since 1950 estimated with vine-copula models. Natural Hazards 121:6155–6184, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-024-07039-5
We welcome contributions to improve this project! Here are some ways you can help:
Report Bugs: If you find a bug, please open an issue with detailed information about the problem and how to reproduce it.
Submit Pull Requests: If you want to fix a bug or implement a feature, follow these steps:
- Fork the repository.
- Create a new branch (git checkout -b feature/YourFeatureName).
- Make your changes.
- Commit your changes (git commit -m 'Add some feature').
- Push to the branch (git push origin feature/YourFeatureName).
- Open a pull request. Suggest Features: Have an idea for a new feature? Open an issue to discuss it.
The COMPASS project has received funding from the European Union’s HORIZON Research and Innovation Actions Programme under Grant Agreement No. 101135481.
Funded by the European Union. Views and opinions expressed are however those of the author(s) only and do not necessarily reflect those of the European Union or of the European Health and Digital Executive Agency (HADEA). Neither the European Union nor the granting authority HADEA can be held responsible for them.