Bill review: GA HB463 - Georgia Economic Growth and Tax Relief Act of 2026

[DTrim99]

Bill Review: Georgia HB463 - Economic Growth and Tax Relief Act of 2026

Reform ID: ga-hb463 | State: GA
Bill text: https://www.legis.ga.gov/legislation/70350
Description: Hypothetical multi-year analysis assuming all revenue triggers are met. Compared against a triggered baseline.

Merging this PR will publish the bill to the dashboard.

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Baseline Assumption (REVISED)

This analysis uses a "triggered baseline" that assumes Georgia's existing revenue triggers are met:

• 2026: 5.09% (down from 5.19%)
• 2027+: 4.99% (floor under current law)

This is a fairer comparison since the baseline rate reductions are likely to occur if revenue targets are met. Using a static 5.19% baseline would overstate HB463's cost.

What we model

Provision	Baseline	HB463 Reform
Income tax rate (2026)	5.09%	4.99%
Income tax rate (2027)	4.99%	4.865%
Income tax rate (2034)	4.99%	3.99%
Standard deduction (joint)	$24,000	$30,000-$36,000
Standard deduction (single)	$12,000	$15,000-$18,000
Dependent exemption	$4,000	$5,000-$6,000
Retirement exclusion (65+)	$65,000	$70,000 (2027+)

NOT MODELED: Tips exemption, overtime exemption, tax credit repeals

Multi-Year Revenue Impact (vs Triggered Baseline)

Year	Baseline Rate	Reform Rate	Rate Cut	Revenue Impact	Winners
2026	5.09%	4.99%	0.10pp	-$1.16B	61.0%
2027	4.99%	4.865%	0.125pp	-$1.38B	61.7%
2028	4.99%	4.74%	0.25pp	-$2.12B	62.5%
2029	4.99%	4.615%	0.375pp	-$2.92B	64.2%
2030	4.99%	4.49%	0.50pp	-$3.80B	64.9%
2031	4.99%	4.365%	0.625pp	-$4.73B	65.6%
2032	4.99%	4.24%	0.75pp	-$5.75B	66.4%
2033	4.99%	4.115%	0.875pp	-$6.84B	67.1%
2034	4.99%	3.99%	1.00pp	-$8.01B	67.4%
TOTAL				-$36.7B

Comparison to Static Baseline

Baseline Assumption	9-Year Cost	Notes
Static 5.19%	~$84B	Overstates cost - ignores likely triggered reductions
Triggered (5.09%/4.99%)	~$37B	Fair comparison assuming triggers are met

The triggered baseline reduces the estimated cost by 56% because the baseline already includes rate reductions to 4.99% under current law.

Poverty Impact by Year

Year	Baseline Poverty	Reform Poverty	Change
2026	10.78%	10.75%	-0.03pp
2027	10.74%	10.71%	-0.03pp
2028	10.74%	10.69%	-0.05pp
2029	10.71%	10.65%	-0.06pp
2030	10.67%	10.57%	-0.10pp
2031	10.58%	10.52%	-0.06pp
2032	10.54%	10.46%	-0.08pp
2033	10.49%	10.41%	-0.07pp
2034	10.48%	10.37%	-0.11pp

Key Results Summary

• Total 9-year revenue impact: -$36.7B (cost to state / benefit to taxpayers)
• Average annual impact: -$4.1B
• Winners: 61-67% of households (increasing over time)
• Losers: ~0%
• Poverty reduction: 0.03-0.11pp per year

Model Notes

• Analysis uses PolicyEngine's Enhanced CPS microdata for Georgia
• Each year computed independently with year-specific parameters
• Baseline assumes revenue triggers are met (5.09% in 2026, 4.99% floor in 2027+)
• Reform assumes all HB463 triggers are met each year

Reform parameters by year

Rates: 4.99% (2026) → 4.865% (2027) → 4.74% (2028) → 4.615% (2029) → 4.49% (2030) → 4.365% (2031) → 4.24% (2032) → 4.115% (2033) → 3.99% (2034)

Standard Deduction (Joint): $30,000 (2026) → $30,750 (2027) → ... → $36,000 (2034)

Standard Deduction (Single): $15,000 (2026) → $15,375 (2027) → ... → $18,000 (2034)

Dependent Exemption: $5,000 (2026) → $5,125 (2027) → ... → $6,000 (2034)

Retirement Exclusion (65+): $70,000 (2027+)

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