Refuse to publish releases with skipped out-of-sample reforms#222
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A release built with --skip-out-of-sample-reforms publishes blank OBBBA validation, indistinguishable from a real result — and the build invocation that passes that flag lives outside this repo, so it can't be fixed in code. Enforce it at the publish boundary instead: refuse to publish when reform_validation.json reports out_of_sample_simulated false, unless --allow-incomplete-reform-validation is given. UK releases (no reform_validation.json) are unaffected. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
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Why
The 2026-06-27 release shipped with
out_of_sample_simulated: false— built with--skip-out-of-sample-reforms— so the dashboard shows blank OBBBA validation for it, same regression we fixed before. The build command that passes that flag lives outside this repo (ad-hoc/automated builds; the README's documented command doesn't skip), so there's no in-repo invocation to fix.So enforce it at the publish boundary, which every release crosses regardless of who built it.
What
populace-publish-releasenow refuses (exit 1, before any upload) when the release dir'sreform_validation.jsonhasout_of_sample_simulated: false, with a message to rebuild without skipping or pass--allow-incomplete-reform-validationto override. Releases without areform_validation.json(e.g. UK) are unaffected.This composes with #185 (which added the
out_of_sample_simulatedflag and the build-time warning) — the flag is now load-bearing.Tests
test_publish_guard.py— flag detection (false/true/absent) and that publish is refused (exit 1, before upload) on a skipped release.🤖 Generated with Claude Code