pspforecast

Shellfish toxicity (PSP) forecast serving package

For the current 2026 Maine PSP predictions, click here

For past season results, check out this shiny application

Installation

remotes::install_github("BigelowLab/pspforecast")

Reading the forecast database

library(pspforecast)
fc = read_forecast()
glimpse(fc)

## Rows: 673
## Columns: 20
## $ version             �[3m�[38;5;246m<chr>�[39m�[23m "v0.4.0"�[38;5;246m, �[39m"v0.4.0"�[38;5;246m, �[39m"v0.4.0"�[38;5;246m, �[39m"v0.4.0"�[38;5;246m, �[39m"v0.4.0"�[38;5;246m, �[39m"v0.4.0"�[38;5;246m, �[39m"v0.4.0"�[38;5;246m, �[39m"v0.4.0"�[38;5;246m, �[39m"v0.4.0"�[38;5;246m, �[39m"v0.4.0"�[38;5;246m, �[39m"v0.4.0"�[38;5;246m, �[39m"v0.4.0"�[38;5;246m, �[39m"v0.4.0"�[38;5;246m, �[39m"v0.4.0"�[38;5;246m, �[39m"v0.4.0"�[38;5;246m, �[39m"v0.4.0"�[38;5;246m, �[39m…
## $ ensemble_n          �[3m�[38;5;246m<dbl>�[39m�[23m 10�[38;5;246m, �[39m10�[38;5;246m, �[39m10�[38;5;246m, �[39m10�[38;5;246m, �[39m10�[38;5;246m, �[39m10�[38;5;246m, �[39m10�[38;5;246m, �[39m10�[38;5;246m, �[39m10�[38;5;246m, �[39m10�[38;5;246m, �[39m10�[38;5;246m, �[39m10�[38;5;246m, �[39m10�[38;5;246m, �[39m10�[38;5;246m, �[39m10�[38;5;246m, �[39m10�[38;5;246m, �[39m10�[38;5;246m, �[39m10�[38;5;246m, �[39m10�[38;5;246m, �[39m10�[38;5;246m, �[39m10�[38;5;246m, �[39m10�[38;5;246m, �[39m10�[38;5;246m, �[39m10�[38;5;246m, �[39m10�[38;5;246m, �[39m10�[38;5;246m, �[39m10�[38;5;246m, �[39m10�[38;5;246m, �[39m10�[38;5;246m, �[39m10�[38;5;246m, �[39m10�[38;5;246m, �[39m10�[38;5;246m, �[39m10�[38;5;246m, �[39m10�[38;5;246m, �[39m10�[38;5;246m, �[39m10�[38;5;246m, �[39m10�[38;5;246m, �[39m10�[38;5;246m, �[39m10�[38;5;246m, �[39m10�[38;5;246m, �[39m…
## $ location            �[3m�[38;5;246m<chr>�[39m�[23m "PSP10.11"�[38;5;246m, �[39m"PSP10.33"�[38;5;246m, �[39m"PSP12.01"�[38;5;246m, �[39m"PSP12.03"�[38;5;246m, �[39m"PSP12.13"�[38;5;246m, �[39m"PSP12.28"�[38;5;246m, �[39m"PSP12.34"�[38;5;246m, �[39m"PSP21.09"�[38;5;246m, �[39m"PSP26.07"�[38;5;246m, �[39m"PSP27.05"�[38;5;246m, �[39m"PSP27.46"�[38;5;246m, �[39m"PSP19.15"�[38;5;246m, �[39m"PSP23.07"�[38;5;246m, �[39m"PSP…
## $ date                �[3m�[38;5;246m<date>�[39m�[23m 2026-04-13�[38;5;246m, �[39m2026-04-13�[38;5;246m, �[39m2026-04-14�[38;5;246m, �[39m2026-04-14�[38;5;246m, �[39m2026-04-14�[38;5;246m, �[39m2026-04-14�[38;5;246m, �[39m2026-04-14�[38;5;246m, �[39m2026-04-14�[38;5;246m, �[39m2026-04-14�[38;5;246m, �[39m2026-04-14�[38;5;246m, �[39m2026-04-14�[38;5;246m, �[39m2026-04-15�[38;5;246m, �[39m2026-04-15�[38;5;246m, �[39m202…
## $ species             �[3m�[38;5;246m<chr>�[39m�[23m "mytilus"�[38;5;246m, �[39m"mytilus"�[38;5;246m, �[39m"mytilus"�[38;5;246m, �[39m"mytilus"�[38;5;246m, �[39m"mytilus"�[38;5;246m, �[39m"mytilus"�[38;5;246m, �[39m"mytilus"�[38;5;246m, �[39m"mytilus"�[38;5;246m, �[39m"mytilus"�[38;5;246m, �[39m"mytilus"�[38;5;246m, �[39m"mytilus"�[38;5;246m, �[39m"mytilus"�[38;5;246m, �[39m"mytilus"�[38;5;246m, �[39m"mytilus"�[38;5;246m, �[39m"mytil…
## $ name                �[3m�[38;5;246m<chr>�[39m�[23m "Ogunquit River"�[38;5;246m, �[39m"Spurwink River"�[38;5;246m, �[39m"Basin Pt."�[38;5;246m, �[39m"Potts Pt."�[38;5;246m, �[39m"Lumbos Hole"�[38;5;246m, �[39m"Bear Island"�[38;5;246m, �[39m"Head Beach"�[38;5;246m, �[39m"Bass Hbr."�[38;5;246m, �[39m"Cutler Hbr."�[38;5;246m, �[39m"Gove Pt."�[38;5;246m, �[39m"Gleason Cove"…
## $ lat                 �[3m�[38;5;246m<dbl>�[39m�[23m 43.25030�[38;5;246m, �[39m43.56632�[38;5;246m, �[39m43.73848�[38;5;246m, �[39m43.73064�[38;5;246m, �[39m43.79553�[38;5;246m, �[39m43.78556�[38;5;246m, �[39m43.71711�[38;5;246m, �[39m44.23824�[38;5;246m, �[39m44.65701�[38;5;246m, �[39m44.90545�[38;5;246m, �[39m44.97084�[38;5;246m, �[39m44.15419�[38;5;246m, �[39m44.39319�[38;5;246m, �[39m44.52198�[38;5;246m, �[39m44.53205�[38;5;246m, �[39m44.39319�[38;5;246m, �[39m…
## $ lon                 �[3m�[38;5;246m<dbl>�[39m�[23m -70.59540�[38;5;246m, �[39m-70.27305�[38;5;246m, �[39m-70.04343�[38;5;246m, �[39m-70.02556�[38;5;246m, �[39m-69.94557�[38;5;246m, �[39m-69.87415�[38;5;246m, �[39m-69.84999�[38;5;246m, �[39m-68.34792�[38;5;246m, �[39m-67.20525�[38;5;246m, �[39m-67.05621�[38;5;246m, �[39m-67.05254�[38;5;246m, �[39m-68.65947�[38;5;246m, �[39m-67.97628�[38;5;246m, �[39m-67.79233�[38;5;246m, �[39m-67.56…
## $ class_bins          �[3m�[38;5;246m<chr>�[39m�[23m "0,10,30,80"�[38;5;246m, �[39m"0,10,30,80"�[38;5;246m, �[39m"0,10,30,80"�[38;5;246m, �[39m"0,10,30,80"�[38;5;246m, �[39m"0,10,30,80"�[38;5;246m, �[39m"0,10,30,80"�[38;5;246m, �[39m"0,10,30,80"�[38;5;246m, �[39m"0,10,30,80"�[38;5;246m, �[39m"0,10,30,80"�[38;5;246m, �[39m"0,10,30,80"�[38;5;246m, �[39m"0,10,30,80"�[38;5;246m, �[39m"0,10,…
## $ forecast_start_date �[3m�[38;5;246m<date>�[39m�[23m 2026-04-17�[38;5;246m, �[39m2026-04-17�[38;5;246m, �[39m2026-04-18�[38;5;246m, �[39m2026-04-18�[38;5;246m, �[39m2026-04-18�[38;5;246m, �[39m2026-04-18�[38;5;246m, �[39m2026-04-18�[38;5;246m, �[39m2026-04-18�[38;5;246m, �[39m2026-04-18�[38;5;246m, �[39m2026-04-18�[38;5;246m, �[39m2026-04-18�[38;5;246m, �[39m2026-04-19�[38;5;246m, �[39m2026-04-19�[38;5;246m, �[39m202…
## $ forecast_end_date   �[3m�[38;5;246m<date>�[39m�[23m 2026-04-23�[38;5;246m, �[39m2026-04-23�[38;5;246m, �[39m2026-04-24�[38;5;246m, �[39m2026-04-24�[38;5;246m, �[39m2026-04-24�[38;5;246m, �[39m2026-04-24�[38;5;246m, �[39m2026-04-24�[38;5;246m, �[39m2026-04-24�[38;5;246m, �[39m2026-04-24�[38;5;246m, �[39m2026-04-24�[38;5;246m, �[39m2026-04-24�[38;5;246m, �[39m2026-04-25�[38;5;246m, �[39m2026-04-25�[38;5;246m, �[39m202…
## $ p_0                 �[3m�[38;5;246m<dbl>�[39m�[23m 99�[38;5;246m, �[39m99�[38;5;246m, �[39m98�[38;5;246m, �[39m98�[38;5;246m, �[39m94�[38;5;246m, �[39m93�[38;5;246m, �[39m94�[38;5;246m, �[39m98�[38;5;246m, �[39m81�[38;5;246m, �[39m96�[38;5;246m, �[39m81�[38;5;246m, �[39m98�[38;5;246m, �[39m98�[38;5;246m, �[39m97�[38;5;246m, �[39m99�[38;5;246m, �[39m99�[38;5;246m, �[39m99�[38;5;246m, �[39m97�[38;5;246m, �[39m96�[38;5;246m, �[39m97�[38;5;246m, �[39m89�[38;5;246m, �[39m99�[38;5;246m, �[39m98�[38;5;246m, �[39m96�[38;5;246m, �[39m95�[38;5;246m, �[39m59�[38;5;246m, �[39m30�[38;5;246m, �[39m89�[38;5;246m, �[39m96�[38;5;246m, �[39m94�[38;5;246m, �[39m95�[38;5;246m, �[39m93�[38;5;246m, �[39m96�[38;5;246m, �[39m90�[38;5;246m, �[39m87�[38;5;246m, �[39m70�[38;5;246m, �[39m84�[38;5;246m, �[39m98�[38;5;246m, �[39m96�[38;5;246m, �[39m94�[38;5;246m, �[39m…
## $ p_1                 �[3m�[38;5;246m<dbl>�[39m�[23m 1�[38;5;246m, �[39m1�[38;5;246m, �[39m2�[38;5;246m, �[39m2�[38;5;246m, �[39m6�[38;5;246m, �[39m6�[38;5;246m, �[39m6�[38;5;246m, �[39m2�[38;5;246m, �[39m16�[38;5;246m, �[39m3�[38;5;246m, �[39m16�[38;5;246m, �[39m2�[38;5;246m, �[39m2�[38;5;246m, �[39m3�[38;5;246m, �[39m1�[38;5;246m, �[39m1�[38;5;246m, �[39m1�[38;5;246m, �[39m3�[38;5;246m, �[39m4�[38;5;246m, �[39m3�[38;5;246m, �[39m9�[38;5;246m, �[39m1�[38;5;246m, �[39m2�[38;5;246m, �[39m4�[38;5;246m, �[39m5�[38;5;246m, �[39m26�[38;5;246m, �[39m36�[38;5;246m, �[39m9�[38;5;246m, �[39m4�[38;5;246m, �[39m5�[38;5;246m, �[39m5�[38;5;246m, �[39m7�[38;5;246m, �[39m4�[38;5;246m, �[39m8�[38;5;246m, �[39m10�[38;5;246m, �[39m21�[38;5;246m, �[39m12�[38;5;246m, �[39m2�[38;5;246m, �[39m3�[38;5;246m, �[39m5�[38;5;246m, �[39m3�[38;5;246m, �[39m1�[38;5;246m, �[39m1�[38;5;246m, �[39m3�[38;5;246m, �[39m2�[38;5;246m, �[39m1�[38;5;246m, �[39m15�[38;5;246m, �[39m3�[38;5;246m, �[39m9�[38;5;246m, �[39m7�[38;5;246m, �[39m13…
## $ p_2                 �[3m�[38;5;246m<dbl>�[39m�[23m 0�[38;5;246m, �[39m0�[38;5;246m, �[39m0�[38;5;246m, �[39m0�[38;5;246m, �[39m0�[38;5;246m, �[39m1�[38;5;246m, �[39m0�[38;5;246m, �[39m0�[38;5;246m, �[39m3�[38;5;246m, �[39m0�[38;5;246m, �[39m2�[38;5;246m, �[39m0�[38;5;246m, �[39m0�[38;5;246m, �[39m0�[38;5;246m, �[39m0�[38;5;246m, �[39m0�[38;5;246m, �[39m0�[38;5;246m, �[39m0�[38;5;246m, �[39m0�[38;5;246m, �[39m0�[38;5;246m, �[39m1�[38;5;246m, �[39m0�[38;5;246m, �[39m0�[38;5;246m, �[39m0�[38;5;246m, �[39m0�[38;5;246m, �[39m11�[38;5;246m, �[39m24�[38;5;246m, �[39m1�[38;5;246m, �[39m0�[38;5;246m, �[39m0�[38;5;246m, �[39m0�[38;5;246m, �[39m1�[38;5;246m, �[39m0�[38;5;246m, �[39m1�[38;5;246m, �[39m2�[38;5;246m, �[39m6�[38;5;246m, �[39m3�[38;5;246m, �[39m0�[38;5;246m, �[39m0�[38;5;246m, �[39m0�[38;5;246m, �[39m0�[38;5;246m, �[39m0�[38;5;246m, �[39m0�[38;5;246m, �[39m0�[38;5;246m, �[39m0�[38;5;246m, �[39m0�[38;5;246m, �[39m4�[38;5;246m, �[39m0�[38;5;246m, �[39m1�[38;5;246m, �[39m1�[38;5;246m, �[39m4�[38;5;246m, �[39m0�[38;5;246m, �[39m0�[38;5;246m,�[39m…
## $ p_3                 �[3m�[38;5;246m<dbl>�[39m�[23m 0�[38;5;246m, �[39m0�[38;5;246m, �[39m0�[38;5;246m, �[39m0�[38;5;246m, �[39m0�[38;5;246m, �[39m0�[38;5;246m, �[39m0�[38;5;246m, �[39m0�[38;5;246m, �[39m1�[38;5;246m, �[39m0�[38;5;246m, �[39m0�[38;5;246m, �[39m0�[38;5;246m, �[39m0�[38;5;246m, �[39m0�[38;5;246m, �[39m0�[38;5;246m, �[39m0�[38;5;246m, �[39m0�[38;5;246m, �[39m0�[38;5;246m, �[39m0�[38;5;246m, �[39m0�[38;5;246m, �[39m0�[38;5;246m, �[39m0�[38;5;246m, �[39m0�[38;5;246m, �[39m0�[38;5;246m, �[39m0�[38;5;246m, �[39m4�[38;5;246m, �[39m11�[38;5;246m, �[39m0�[38;5;246m, �[39m0�[38;5;246m, �[39m0�[38;5;246m, �[39m0�[38;5;246m, �[39m0�[38;5;246m, �[39m0�[38;5;246m, �[39m0�[38;5;246m, �[39m1�[38;5;246m, �[39m2�[38;5;246m, �[39m1�[38;5;246m, �[39m0�[38;5;246m, �[39m0�[38;5;246m, �[39m0�[38;5;246m, �[39m0�[38;5;246m, �[39m0�[38;5;246m, �[39m0�[38;5;246m, �[39m0�[38;5;246m, �[39m0�[38;5;246m, �[39m0�[38;5;246m, �[39m1�[38;5;246m, �[39m0�[38;5;246m, �[39m0�[38;5;246m, �[39m0�[38;5;246m, �[39m1�[38;5;246m, �[39m0�[38;5;246m, �[39m0�[38;5;246m, �[39m…
## $ p3_sd               �[3m�[38;5;246m<dbl>�[39m�[23m 0.0012371945�[38;5;246m, �[39m0.0023733521�[38;5;246m, �[39m0.0024041385�[38;5;246m, �[39m0.0041712376�[38;5;246m, �[39m0.0669436602�[38;5;246m, �[39m0.0467839217�[38;5;246m, �[39m0.0317355271�[38;5;246m, �[39m0.0031925299�[38;5;246m, �[39m0.5697455237�[38;5;246m, �[39m0.0215190595�[38;5;246m, �[39m0.3680724580�[38;5;246m, �[39m0.0037…
## $ p_3_min             �[3m�[38;5;246m<dbl>�[39m�[23m 0.0005414331�[38;5;246m, �[39m0.0009854686�[38;5;246m, �[39m0.0019742312�[38;5;246m, �[39m0.0012217212�[38;5;246m, �[39m0.0037948987�[38;5;246m, �[39m0.0943924708�[38;5;246m, �[39m0.0315538928�[38;5;246m, �[39m0.0009424035�[38;5;246m, �[39m0.1029437175�[38;5;246m, �[39m0.0027424621�[38;5;246m, �[39m0.0409453467�[38;5;246m, �[39m0.0039…
## $ p_3_max             �[3m�[38;5;246m<dbl>�[39m�[23m 4.035514e-03�[38;5;246m, �[39m7.677227e-03�[38;5;246m, �[39m9.584654e-03�[38;5;246m, �[39m1.410544e-02�[38;5;246m, �[39m2.017008e-01�[38;5;246m, �[39m2.584866e-01�[38;5;246m, �[39m1.390330e-01�[38;5;246m, �[39m1.091267e-02�[38;5;246m, �[39m1.650765e+00�[38;5;246m, �[39m5.697501e-02�[38;5;246m, �[39m1.117264e+00�[38;5;246m, �[39m1.3985…
## $ predicted_class     �[3m�[38;5;246m<dbl>�[39m�[23m 0�[38;5;246m, �[39m0�[38;5;246m, �[39m0�[38;5;246m, �[39m0�[38;5;246m, �[39m0�[38;5;246m, �[39m0�[38;5;246m, �[39m0�[38;5;246m, �[39m0�[38;5;246m, �[39m0�[38;5;246m, �[39m0�[38;5;246m, �[39m0�[38;5;246m, �[39m0�[38;5;246m, �[39m0�[38;5;246m, �[39m0�[38;5;246m, �[39m0�[38;5;246m, �[39m0�[38;5;246m, �[39m0�[38;5;246m, �[39m0�[38;5;246m, �[39m0�[38;5;246m, �[39m0�[38;5;246m, �[39m0�[38;5;246m, �[39m0�[38;5;246m, �[39m0�[38;5;246m, �[39m0�[38;5;246m, �[39m0�[38;5;246m, �[39m0�[38;5;246m, �[39m1�[38;5;246m, �[39m0�[38;5;246m, �[39m0�[38;5;246m, �[39m0�[38;5;246m, �[39m0�[38;5;246m, �[39m0�[38;5;246m, �[39m0�[38;5;246m, �[39m0�[38;5;246m, �[39m0�[38;5;246m, �[39m0�[38;5;246m, �[39m0�[38;5;246m, �[39m0�[38;5;246m, �[39m0�[38;5;246m, �[39m0�[38;5;246m, �[39m0�[38;5;246m, �[39m0�[38;5;246m, �[39m0�[38;5;246m, �[39m0�[38;5;246m, �[39m0�[38;5;246m, �[39m0�[38;5;246m, �[39m0�[38;5;246m, �[39m0�[38;5;246m, �[39m0�[38;5;246m, �[39m0�[38;5;246m, �[39m0�[38;5;246m, �[39m0�[38;5;246m, �[39m0�[38;5;246m, �[39m0…
## $ f_id                �[3m�[38;5;246m<chr>�[39m�[23m "PSP10.11_2026-04-13_mytilus"�[38;5;246m, �[39m"PSP10.33_2026-04-13_mytilus"�[38;5;246m, �[39m"PSP12.01_2026-04-14_mytilus"�[38;5;246m, �[39m"PSP12.03_2026-04-14_mytilus"�[38;5;246m, �[39m"PSP12.13_2026-04-14_mytilus"�[38;5;246m, �[39m"PSP1…

Forecast Variables:

• version - the version/configuration of the model used to make the prediction
• ensemble_n - number of ensemble members used to generate prediction
• location - the sampling station the forecast is for
• date - the date the forecast was made on
• name - site name
• lat - latitude
• lon - longitude
• class_bins - the bins used to classify shellfish total toxicity (i.e. 0: 0-10, 1: 10-30, 2: 30-80, 3: >80)
• forecast_date - the date the forecast is valid for (i.e. one week ahead of when it was made)
• predicted_class - the predicted classification at the location listed on the forecast_date (in this case 0-3)
• p_0 - class 0 probability
• p_1 - class 1 probability
• p_2 - class 2 probability
• p_3 - class 3 probability
• p3_sd - class 3 probability standard deviation
• p_3_min - class 3 minimum probability (from ensemble run)
• p_3_max - class 3 maximum probability (from ensemble run)
• predicted_class - the predicted classification

Results

Metrics:

• tp - The model predicted class 3 and the following week’s measurement was class 3
• fp - The model predicted class 3 and the following week’s measurement was not class 3
• tn - The model predicted class 0,1,2 and the following week’s measurement was in class 0,1,2
• fn - The model predicted class 0,1,2 and the following week’s measurement was class 3
• accuracy - Measure of how many correct classifications were predicted
• cl_accuracy - Considering predictions are those that correctly predicted toxicity above or below the closure limit or not
• precision - TP/(TP+FP)
• sensitivity - TP/(TP+FN)
• specificity - TN/(TN+FP)
• f_1 - (2TP)/(2TP-FP+FN)

Predictions evaluated:

## [1] 2634

Metrics (overall):

## # A tibble: 1 × 11
##      tp    fp    tn    fn cl_accuracy accuracy brier   f_1 precision sensitivity specificity
##   <int> <int> <int> <int>       <dbl>    <dbl> <dbl> <dbl>     <dbl>       <dbl>       <dbl>
## 1    69    65  2449    51       0.956    0.806 0.028 0.543     0.515       0.575       0.974

Individual seasons:

## # A tibble: 5 × 12
##    year    tp    fp    tn    fn cl_accuracy accuracy brier     f_1 precision sensitivity specificity
##   <int> <int> <int> <int> <int>       <dbl>    <dbl> <dbl>   <dbl>     <dbl>       <dbl>       <dbl>
## 1  2021     2     3   463     0       0.994    0.938 0.005   0.571     0.4         1           0.994
## 2  2022    16    20   603    12       0.951    0.799 0.03    0.5       0.444       0.571       0.968
## 3  2023     0     0   405     0       1        0.99  0     NaN       NaN         NaN           1    
## 4  2024     2     4   397     7       0.973    0.717 0.017   0.267     0.333       0.222       0.990
## 5  2025    49    38   581    32       0.9      0.671 0.066   0.583     0.563       0.605       0.939

2026 (current season) Results

Predictions evaluated

## [1] 594

Metrics

## # A tibble: 1 × 11
##      tp    fp    tn    fn cl_accuracy accuracy brier   f_1 precision sensitivity specificity
##   <int> <int> <int> <int>       <dbl>    <dbl> <dbl> <dbl>     <dbl>       <dbl>       <dbl>
## 1    13    10   560    11       0.965    0.603 0.024 0.553     0.565       0.542       0.982

Last Updated

## [1] "2026-08-19"

Requirements

• R v4+

• rlang

• dplyr

• readr

• tidyr

• httr