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Replace other_medical_expenses with a CMS NHEA out-of-pocket benchmark #738

@MaxGhenis

Description

@MaxGhenis

other_medical_expenses is currently calibrated using a survey/account-style benchmark. If we keep a national non-premium medical spending target, CMS National Health Expenditure Accounts (NHEA) out-of-pocket spending is the more defensible official aggregate.

Why the current target is weak:

  • The current benchmark is not a clean administrative series.
  • NHEA out-of-pocket spending is the official macro aggregate for household medical out-of-pocket spending.
  • It is still account-based rather than purely administrative, but it is more authoritative than a survey-preservation target.

Proposed change:

  • Replace other_medical_expenses with an explicit NHEA out-of-pocket benchmark, documenting any adjustments needed to exclude premiums and align to the model concept.
  • If the concept mapping is too loose, demote the target to diagnostic status rather than treating it as a hard anchor.

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