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Demote or replace health_insurance_premiums_without_medicare_part_b as a hard target #737

@MaxGhenis

Description

@MaxGhenis

health_insurance_premiums_without_medicare_part_b is currently treated as a hard calibration target, but there is no clean administrative national total for household premium outlays excluding Medicare Part B.

Why the current target is weak:

  • The current benchmark is MEPS/NHEA-based, which is better than CPS but still not a clean administrative total.
  • CMS NHEA is the best official macro source here, but it is an account series assembled from mixed inputs and residual methods, not a one-to-one administrative measure of this exact concept.
  • That makes it a weak hard target if we are trying to keep the calibration set admin-first.

Proposed change:

  • Demote health_insurance_premiums_without_medicare_part_b from a hard calibration target.
  • If we want to retain a consistency check, define an explicit NHEA-based soft benchmark and document the concept mismatch.
  • Keep medicare_part_b_premiums as the clean admin-backed target.

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